英鎊/日元能否在通脹降溫的情況下維持突破?

英鎊/日元 最近幾週突破了長期區間,但在英國通脹下降後可能面臨進一步下跌風險。

GBPJPY: Weekly Chart

英鎊/日元:週線圖

英鎊/日元目前交投於 180附近,但它是在突破之後升值該水平,近期的看跌情緒可能會測試上升趨勢線。

隨著英國通脹率跌至 2022 年 3 月低點,英鎊下跌。通脹率下降至7.9%將緩解近期針對英國央行的一些批評,並可能導致其加息策略暫停。

核心通脹率降至 6.9%,給消費者帶來了重新覺醒的希望。英國國家統計局 (ONS) 報告稱,在經歷了糟糕的情況之後,通貨膨脹率創下 15 個月以來的新低,去年 10 月份的數據曾達到 41年新高的11.1%。

英格蘭銀行將鬆一口氣,因為現在的通脹趨勢已經走低,交易員正在縮減對進一步加息的押注。日本尚未觸及自己的利率,這一差距將隨著貨幣匯率的上漲而擴大。

生產者價格通脹(顯示早期通脹)也在放緩,截至 6 月份的一年中,燃料和原材料成本下降了 2.7%,而出廠貨物成本僅上漲 0.1%。

總理里希·蘇納克 (Rishi Sunak) 希望今年通脹率在 10% 的情況下減半。如果繼續接近這一水平並進一步實現英國央行 2% 的目標,那麼英鎊可能會出現強勁回調。這將從價格收盤在上升趨勢線下方開始。

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